Robert K Umstead

Effects-Based Decision Making in the War on Terror Robert K Umstead

In recent years, effects-based planning, execution, and assessment has moved from doctrinal debate to operational implementation in the U. S. military. Although effects-based operations (EBO) implementation strategies vary among the combatant commands and services, each faces the difficult task of planning and assessing their operations. USPACOM, the sponsor of this research, faces these challenges on a daily basis as they fight the war on terror in their area of responsibility. From an operations research (OR) prospective, EBO formulations resemble networks with structures ranging from hierarchical (objective-effect-action-resource chains) to closed (systems-of-systems nodal chains). Many traditional OR network techniques can be employed to analysis these formulations. This project investigates two such techniques, network flows and risk analysis to identify nodes of influence (centers of gravity) and courses of actions (sets of actions). Applications of these techniques span the entire spectrum of military operations, but are particularly suited to the war on terrorism.