Carmen Zech

Forecasting: a Challenge for True Statisticians Carmen Zech

At all times, looking into the future and knowing what is happening has been a dream of mankind. As a symbol for this attempt the Oracle of Delphi is the best proof and until today the Delphi-Method is an important decision support tool. Despite of all methods and procedures to make forecasting a high level of responsibility, seriousness and professionalism of all the involved people is an absolute necessity. Today, unfortunately we often have the situation where those who are putting society at risk are "no true statisticians", merely people using statistics either without understanding them or in a self-serving manner. This is not a joke, this is criminal! In the present contribution, the 16th volume of the publication series "Economy and Labour" with the title "Forecasting: A Challenge for True Statisticians", a scientific, well proofed method of mathematical statistics for Time Series Analysis and Forecasting is presented. It is one of the mathematically oriented methods and procedures of Customer-oriented-Holistic-Netted-Logistics CHNL described in this publication series. In the present volume an important forecasting tool is described and its power is impressively shown by case studies using the SCA-Software system.